Dramatic rise in EV sales predicted

If a Bloomberg new energy finance study is accurate with its predictions, 35 percent of all vehicles sold globally will be electric. The study further goes on to forecast that 41 million electric vehicles will be sold per year by 2040, 90 times more than the estimated 4.62 lakh vehicles sold last year.

The rise in sale of electric cars will further reduce dependence on crude oil and as a result, global crude prices will drop. Colin McKerracher, lead advanced transportation analyst at Bloomberg New Energy Finance, said, “At the core of this forecast is the work we have done on EV battery prices. Lithium-ion battery costs have already dropped by 65 per cent since 2010, reaching $350 per kWh last year. We expect EV battery costs to be well below $120 per kWh by 2030, and to fall further after that as new chemistries come in.” The study’s calculations on total cost of ownership show BEVs becoming cheaper on an unsubsidised basis than internal combustion engine cars by the mid-2020s, even if the latter continue to improve their average mileage per gallon by 3.5 per cent per year.

India however is one of the late adopters of automotive technology. We have only one pure electric car produced in India, the e2o, and it isn’t setting any sales charts on fire as of now. Our dependence on fuel from dead dinosaurs will at some point run out, so before we hit rock bottom, why not bring in an alternative – electric cars with zero emissions, you hit two birds with one stone.

For India to buy into the electric car revolution though, a few steps need to be taken domestically. Firstly, the taxation laws on overseas cars are so steep, that manufacturers have stopped importing cars as well as technology from abroad. Scale down import duties, maybe a little sharing of information and technology might help boost a change. The second hurdle is the cost factor. Electric cars usually are pretty heavy on the pocket in comparison to internal combustion cars, so naturally one does not go in for an electric car. Global trends take their time to reflect on our market but the signs are clear. Reducing oil prices, rising sales of EVs and all carmakers now willingly accepting the need of EVs in their range. Expect domestic car makers to react to this sooner than you’d expect.